Specificity Of Socio-Demographic Forecasting For The Russian Society

Authors

  • Karina S. Chikaeva

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.36097/rsan.v0i34.1189

Keywords:

socio-demographic projection, demographic trends, demographic scenarios, the demographic crisis

Abstract

The study of demographic processes in Russian society involves socio-demographic forecasts. The article pays attention to the theoretical understanding of the category "demographic projection", it describes four classifications of demographic projections; It presents a practical synthesis of the currently existing socio-demographic forecasts for the Russian society in the medium term. The demographic situation in Russia is assessed as critical because Russian society has to recognize the fact of the birth crisis. The article discusses the causes of the Russian demographic crisis, presents statistical data on demographic indicators of births and deaths, and describes three groups of scenarios for medium-term demographic forecasting. 

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Antonov A.I., Medkov V.M., Arkhangelsky V.N. Demographic processes in Russia of the 21st century. M., 2002. 168 p.

Chikaeva K.S., Scherbakova L.I., Karapetyan E.A., Latysheva A.T., Kosinov S.S., Zinchenko Ya.G., Samygin S.I. (2018) Social Health of Russian Youth: the Specifity of Social and Managerial Technologies of Formation. International Transaction Journal of Engineering, Management and Applied Sciences and Technologies. 2018. Vol. 9. No 6. Pp. 515-525.

Denisenko M.B. Demography. M., 2010. 424 p.

Demography / [el. resource] Access mode: http://www.gks.ru/bgd/free/b12_00/IssWWW.exe/Sig/dk01/-0.htm/

Electronic resource. https://reconomica.ru/economics/statistics/demography- Russia -2018.

Gafiatulina N.Kh. Social health of students in the gender dimension // Bulletin of Perm State University. 2015. No. 17. Pp. 146–157.

Gryshai V., Gafiatulina N., Kasyanov V., Velikodnaya I., Kosinov S., Lyubetsky N., Samygin S. (2018). Social Health of Youth in the Context of Migration Processes in Russia: Assessment of the Threat to National Security. Вісник Національної академії керівних кадрів культури і мистецтв. 2018. No 2. Pp. 141-145.

Kadurina N.V. The demographic forecast for the coming decades for Russia // Socio-political aspects of demographic processes in modern Russia: materials of scientific and practical. conf. Rostov n / D., 2014. Pp. 622-632.

Kasyanov V.V. The demographic security of the region: problems of new risks (for example, the Krasnodar Territory) // scientific support for regional development: proceedings of an international conference. Rostov-on-Don: Southern Federal University, 2015. Pp.121-126.

Kasyanov V.V., Popov M.Yu., Samygin S.I. Comparative analysis of the potential of the cities of Krasnodar and Rostov-on-Don at the beginning of the XXI century // Humanitarian, socio-economic and social sciences. 2018. No2.

Maksim Vaskov, Alexander Rezvanov, Valery Kasyanov, Sergey Samygin, Natalya Gafiatulina, Dmitriy Zagutin, Lidiya Scherbakova Value Orientations of Russian Youth in the System of Managing the Moral Security of Society (2018) // Herald National Academy of Managerial staff of culture and arts. No 2. 2018. Pp. 134-140. http://heraldnamsca.in.ua/index.php/hnamsca/article/view/309.

Medkov V.M. Demography. Rostov n / D., 2003. 592 p.

Natalya Kh. Gafiatulina, Gennadiy A. Vorobyev, Svetlana I. Imgrunt, Sergey I. Samygin, Anna T. Latysheva, Larisa I. Ermakova, Larisa I. Kobysheva (2018). Social Health of Student Youth in South Russia: Analysis of the Perception of Socio-Cultural Risks. Modern Journal of Language Teaching Methods. Vol. 8, Issue 6, June 2018. Pp. 32-41.

Russia will lose 11 million people by 2025 if it does not stop drinking // Time of news. October 5, 2009.

Shakbanova M.M., Gafiatulina N.Kh., Samygin S.I., Chapurko T.M., Levaya N.A., Bineeva N.K. (2018) Youth of the South of Russia: Specifics of manifestation of ethnic identity (on the example of the Dagestan republic). Purusharta. 2018. Vol. 10. No 2. Pp. 111-119.

Shakhbanova M.M., Kasyanov V.V., Gafiatulina N.Kh., Gluzman I.V., Polivina M.A., Gnatyuk M.A., Ramazanov R.O. (2019). The Role of Trust in the Formation of Ethnic Tolerance and Social Health in the Modern Russian Society. Revista Inclusiones. 2019. Vol. 6. No 2. Pp. 296-305.

Sinelnikov A. Is it possible to immediately stop the population decline in Russia / [Electronic resource] Access mode: http: // demographia.ru ›articles_N / index.html? IdArt = 1087.

UN Demographic Forecast for Russia until 2025 / http: // www.xserver.ru/user/demru/

Vereshchagina A.V., Gafiatulina N.Kh. Safe childhood as the basis of social health of young generations: indicators of the sociological dimension [Electronic resource] // Engineering Bulletin of the Don. 2016. Vol. 40, No. 1 (40). URL: http: //.ivdon.ru/ru/magazine/archive/n1y 2016/3527 (accessed date: 05/22/2018).

Vishnevsky A.G., Andreev E.M. The population of Russia in the first half of the new century // Issues of Economics. 2007. No1. Pp. 7-10.

Zakharov S.V. Russian Cross // Political Journal. 2014. No.13. Pp. 51-53.

Downloads

Published

2019-12-11

How to Cite

S. Chikaeva, K. (2019). Specificity Of Socio-Demographic Forecasting For The Russian Society. Revista San Gregorio, (34). https://doi.org/10.36097/rsan.v0i34.1189